The Menendez Seat: NJ Republicans Eye Long-Shot Bid to Flip NJ Senate

Republicans in New Jersey are hoping to win a Senate seat in the Garden State for the first time in more than 50 years as recent polls suggest the race between Democratic Representative Andy Kim and Republican businessman Curtis Bashaw could be closer than expected.
New Jersey isn’t particularly competitive in federal elections, though it has seen close gubernatorial races in recent years. The state usually backs Democrats by double-digits in Senate and presidential races. But Republicans see an opportunity to make gains with voters in November, as Bashaw is running as a moderate businessman in support of abortion and gay rights.
New voter registrations in New Jersey are also tilting toward the GOP, though Democrats still outnumber Republicans by more than 900,000.
Bashaw and Kim are running to replace Senator Bob Menendez, a Democrat who resigned in disgrace this summer after being convicted on 16 counts in a sprawling federal corruption case. Prosecutors accused him of using his position to illegally obtain gifts from New Jersey businessmen and taking bribes in cash and gold on behalf of Egypt. He pleaded not guilty, and his attorneys have appealed the conviction.
The senator’s legal troubles drew new attention to the Senate race, as he initially planned to stay in despite the unfolding criminal case. That gave Republicans a chance to exploit the case to make inroads with voters who may be fed up with the corruption scandals that have long plagued New Jersey politics.
But Kim remains a formidable candidate. He was the first to challenge Menendez in the Democratic primary following the corruption charges. Kim flipped a central Jersey seat blue in 2018, when Democrats rode anti-Trump fervor to victory in suburban seats. Two years later, he held onto the seat even as former President Donald Trump carried the district.
Kim also holds a fundraising lead over Bashaw, according to data from the nonprofit OpenSecrets.
The Democratic congressman has raised about $8.8 million, and dispersed about $4.9 million throughout the campaign Meanwhile, Bashaw has raised about $2.7 million and spent $1.6 million. Bashaw, who is a wealthy hotelier, gave his campaign $1.8 million of his own money.
At the end of June, Kim still had $4 million in the bank, while Bashaw had about $1.1 million, according to OpenSecrets.
Outside groups have spent little on the race, as there are races in more traditionally competitive states that have drawn record spending amid the battle for control of the Senate. PACs have spent just over $43,000 on ads opposing Bashaw, and about $34,000 on ads supporting Kim, according to OpenSecrets.
Bashaw spokesperson Jeannette Hoffman told Newsweek that New Jersey voters “are fed up with career politicians, chaos at the border, and out of control inflation,” particularly “in a year when corrupt US Senator Bob Menendez has dominated the headlines.”
“A pro-choice married gay man, Curtis Bashaw is a political outsider and a job creator who can bring change to New Jersey — and that appeals to Independents, Republicans, and Democrats alike. Over the next several weeks, Curtis will continue to spread his message of freedom, border security, and economic prosperity to Garden State voters up and down the state,” Hoffman said.
Bashaw has focused on the economy, positioning himself as a fiscal conservative who is more moderate on cultural issues.
“I think people would much prefer a candidate who’s an outsider, a business person that’s lived by a budget, to go to Washington to get some fiscal discipline. I’m the moderate in this race, and [Kim] is the radical,” he told The New Jersey Monitor in September.
Kim, meanwhile, has emphasized his efforts to end corruption. In a recent ad, Kim referenced The Sopranos while discussing his support for “the strongest anti-corruption bill in a generation” while in Congress, and touting his bill to bar politicians from trading stocks.
“Jersey politics has a certain reputation,” Kim said. “But I believe we can change that.”
Polls have also shown Kim with a lead, albeit by a smaller margin than other recent Democratic Senate candidates in the state. Recent polling on the race is notably scant compared to other Senate races.
The most recent independent poll of the race is from June 26 to June 27, conducted among 810 likely voters by the pollster co/efficient.
It showed Kim with only a seven-point lead over Bashaw (41 percent to 34 percent), though a large number of respondents were still unsure of how they would vote.
A Farleigh Dickinson University poll, conducted among 809 registered voters from April 1 to April 8, showed Kim up nine points over Bashaw (48 percent to 39 percent).
A Bashaw-sponsored National Research poll, conducted from August 13 to August 15 among 600 likely voters, showed Kim up only five points (38 percent to 33 percent).
Republicans flipping New Jersey’s Senate seat would be a major upset that would make it much more difficult, if not downright impossible, for Democrats to hold onto control of the Senate.
Currently, Democrats hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate, and Republicans are widely expected to pick up at least one seat, as Senator Joe Manchin, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, retires in West Virginia, one of the most conservative states in the country.
Democrats must keep every other seat they currently hold, or flip a seat elsewhere, to hold onto their majority. A flurry of recent polls in Montana showed Republican Tim Sheehy running ahead of Democratic Senator Jon Tester, sparking concerns from Democrats that the race may be out of reach.
Democrat-aligned PACs are now investing in their few chances to flip a seat in Florida and Texas, a tacit acknowledgment that Montana may no longer be in play. Both of those races, however, are still viewed as longshots for Democrats.
Both Bashaw and Kim overcame contested primaries to win their spot on the ballot.
Bashaw defeated a candidate endorsed by Trump— one of the few instances of a Trump-backed candidate losing a GOP primary. The former president is not particularly popular in the state, where suburban areas have shifted hard toward the Democratic column.
Meanwhile, Kim initially faced a primary challenge from Tammy Murphy, the wife of Governor Phil Murphy.
She quickly drew support from the state’s Democratic establishment. That is crucial in New Jersey, as party-endorsed candidates appear on the same line of the ballot. This led to Kim filing a lawsuit challenging that “county-line” system, and “dynasty” accusations against Murphy, who ultimately dropped out of the race.
Forecasters don’t view the race as competitive. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both classify the race as “Safe Democrat.”
In 2020, President Joe Biden won the state by about 16 points, with 57 percent of the vote to Trump’s 41 percent. In 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won by 14 points, winning 55 percent of the vote to Trump’s 41 percent.
But 2021 saw a tight governor race, with Murphy only beating Republican Jack Ciattarelli by about three points—51 percent to 48 percent.
Bashaw and Kim will face off in a debate this Sunday.